Beveridge Curve Switzerland: Visible, Measurable, Changeable
The Beveridge curve shows what’s slowing the Swiss job market. Since 2009, it’s drifting outward. Frictions are measurable – and changeable.
In recent posts, we looked at two sides. Employers: the market grows, wages stagnate, recruitment costs – SMEs pay the price. Employees: unhappy yet settled, because job searching isn't worth it. SMEs would be attractive, but are invisible.
Both are symptoms of the same problem. The Beveridge curve makes it visible. We analysed the FSO data – to the best of our knowledge, not as labour market researchers. What we see is a pattern.
Beveridge Curve: What It Reveals About the Job Market
The Beveridge curve relates two metrics: unemployment rate and vacancy rate.
In a functioning market, they move in opposite directions. Many unemployed, few open positions – or vice versa. Supply and demand find each other, the market clears.
When the curve drifts outward, it means: at the same unemployment level, more positions remain unfilled. Jobs and people are there – but they don't find each other.
This is called declining matching efficiency. Or simply: rising frictions.
Swiss Job Market: The Curve Drifts Outward
From 1992 to about 2008, the curve moved along a stable line. In recessions, unemployment rose, open positions fell. In boom phases, the opposite. The market reacted.
From 2009, the picture shifts. The curve moves upward – at the same unemployment rate, more open positions. The trend intensifies from 2019: the red dots lie clearly above the grey ones.
In 2022, the vacancy rate was above 2.5 percent, with an unemployment rate of around 4 percent. Today it fluctuates around 1.7 percent – still higher than the historical average.
This is the outward shift. Jobs and people are there – but they don't find each other.
Eigene Berechnungen Jobmaps, Erwerbslosenstatistik ILO, Beschäftigungsstatistik BESTA, Erwerbstätigenstatistik ETS
Reducing Frictions: Mechanics, Not Fate
The curve shows what we described in previous posts – now in numbers.
High vacancy costs (k), high search costs (cw) – as explained in part 2. Both together push down matching efficiency (e). The curve drifts outward.
But: this is mechanics, not a law of nature. Lower k, and it's easier for employers. Lower cw, and it's easier for employees.
Those who do both shift the curve back inward.
The Beveridge curve shows the problem – and it shows that it's solvable. Not through more budget. Not through shouting louder. But through less friction.
Exactly how, we don't know. But we're trying to contribute. So that searching becomes worthwhile again – for people who want to work, and for businesses that need people.
Sources:
FSO, Unemployment Statistics (ILO)
FSO, Employment Statistics (BESTA)
FSO, Labour Force Statistics (ETS)
SECO, Labour Market Indicators
